NDP party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the NDP party has the best chance of winning. I plan to add to this list soon, but figured I’d get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests.

Just a reminder that the pair vote process will use the riding rankings here to allocate seats, so be careful what you wish for.

Deadline to vote: Friday, October 3

Add information about potential ridings in the comments below, to help people vote.

Vote and /or add a new riding (This requires an account at Squidoo, just register and continue, sorry for that but I’m just one guy trying to use whatever free and simple tools I can find to make this process work!)

You can also embed this list in your own site and have people vote there.

More party riding lists coming tomorrow…

Green party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the Green party has the best chance of winning. I plan to add to this list soon, but figured I’d get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. I noticed Elizabeth May’s riding isn’t on the list – how many are willing to bet she has a realistic chance?

Just a reminder that the pair vote process will use the riding rankings here to allocate seats, so be careful what you wish for.

Deadline to vote: Friday, October 3

Add information about potential ridings in the comments below, to help people vote.

Vote and /or add a new riding (This requires an account at Squidoo, just register and continue, sorry for that but I’m just one guy trying to use whatever free and simple tools I can find to make this process work!)

You can also embed this list in your own site and have people vote there.

More party riding lists coming tomorrow…

Vote swapping was featured this morning on CBC Radio Ottawa, featuring our very own John Mynott. In case you missed it, here is the 7 minute clip:

CBC Radio Ottawa interview

I also had a couple of interviews of my own. Tomorrow night (Tuesday) watch the 6pm A-News in Ottawa for a video interview I did from my house in Sault Ste. Marie. This was very cool, I helped them figure out how to record an online video using iChat, the first time they had ever tried this. Watch it and see where I spend most of my days. The video will also be online tomorrow after 9 pm. Maybe after watching it I’ll wish I had stuck to the phone.

The other interview was with the University of Western student newspaper the Gazette. One interesting nugget from that conversation is that students can vote in either their home riding or the riding of their university. That means university students have two chances to end up being in a strategic riding. Ideally, we should take a look at which strategic ridings have campuses on them, and reach out to these student newspapers. The article should be up in a couple of days. I’ll try and post a link.

Greg Morrow of democraticSpace (my favourite election site) posted a few days ago his list of battleground ridings, 68 in all.

Catch the sad irony? That means only about 25% of the total ridings matter in this election, the rest are already decided. The people in a whopping 75% of ridings who want to vote for the party not predicted to win might as well stay home, their vote won’t matter. I digress.

I plan to use Greg’s list as a basis for deciding which ridings to focus on. Once I get back some data from a volunteer, I’ll post the following:

• A list of swing ridings for each party that they have a chance of winning.
• Number of vote pair registrants per riding, their preferred party and who they are willing to vote for.

We need Pair Voters in Swing Ridings

The number of pairs is determined by the number of voters signed up in those ridings. We could have 1000 people signed up, but if there are only 100 voters in swing ridings, then there is a max of 100 pairs. Take a look at the list of swing ridings, and invite people you know in those ridings to sign up if their vote won’t otherwise matter.

Add other Ridings to the Lists

The list of 68 is not cast in stone. You can add other ridings to a party list, and I suggest you add a comment as to why you feel a riding should be included, to encourage others to vote for it also.

Influence the Vote – Rank the Ridings

How to decide what order of ridings to allocate pairs to? I’m going to make the pair vote process as participatory as possible. I like James Surowiecki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, which I got to hear James talk about at a conference. You’ll get a chance to rank the ridings for your preferred party, which will influence the pairing process. Bascially, the process will try to match pairs for the top ranked riding for a party first, then the second, and so on. There is one exception, and that happens when a riding ranked lower has a significantly higher number of pair voters, and it makes sense to allocate pairs to that riding ahead of higher ranked ridings. So give the options some thought, and vote on the rank (when it is published). Your collective wisdom is better than anything I can come up with on my own.

• Rank / add to the list of Bloc party ridings
• Rank / add to the list of Conservative party ridings
• Rank / add to the list of Green party ridings
• Rank / add to the list of Liberal party ridings
• Rank / add to the list of NDP party ridings

Influence the Vote – Proportional Pairing

So which party gets first dibs on pairings? I’ve been wrestling with that question also. My idea is this – pairs are allocated proportionally to parties, according to the percentage of registered pair voter supporters they have in strategic ridings. The party with the highest number of supporters goes first. They are allocated pairs to their highest ranked riding. Then the party with the second highest number of supporters goes next, and so on.

An Example

Let’s say the number of paired voters in strategic ridings turns out to be the following:

• Greens: 100
• Liberals: 75
• NDP: 50
• Conservatives: 25

In this example, the Greens go first. All the potential pairs for the Greens in the top ranked riding are allocated, followed by all potential Liberal pairs in their top ranked riding, and so on. After one round, the process is repeated in the same order.

Let me know what you think of this approach. Nothing is cast yet in stone. This seems like a fun and fair approach, but you may have an even better idea or improvement. Post your thoughts as a comment.

Once the election is over, vote reform will disappear from the headlines. We have 3 more weeks to build awareness through healthy, informed dialogue. The best stories are the ones you already know – your personal story, how the voting system has let you down, time and time again. The collection of voter stories on this site is a powerful testimony to the will of people who want to bring about necessary change. We need to collect more.

Find and join the discussions

Ordinary citizens, journalists, political junkies are all talking about vote pairing and voting reform. Join in the conversations. Here is how you can find them online:

• Google search for vote swap, strategic voting.
• Twitter postings. Twitter is a micro blogging service. Find people talking about vote swap, strategic voting.
• Blogs talking about vote swap, strategic voting.

Local papers are also interested in local people talking on this subject. Try writing a letter to the editor, or contact the paper and let them know you are interested in doing a story on pair voting (and I’ll help you with the information you might need).

PairVote.ca members in the spotlight

Listen to John Mynott, pair voter on CBC Radio Ottawa, 7:45 am Monday morning.

I had an email discussion with Alan Parker, deputy managing editor of the Toronto Sun today. Look for the article tomorrow online and in the paper and join in the debate. Alan seems to want to focus on the shortcomings of pair voting rather than the bigger story of why so many are willing to try pair voting in the first place. We’ll see what comes out.

Update: The Toronto Sun blog post is up. Anti vote swap crusader Glyn Clarke puffs his chest and invites people to join against this “immoral” act (2nd comment beneath post).

Pair voting saboteurs.

One registered voter sent me this email:

I’m interested in pair voting but I’m worried that it’s too easy for the system to be sabotaged. It seems like it would be pretty easy to automate the process of entering false sets of information. The main bottleneck to such tactics would be that each form submission would need a new, valid email address. But I would guess there are good solutions to that problem available to those who are more experienced in such matters than myself. Do you have any safeguards in mind for this kind of thing?

The concerns are legitimate. Glyn Clarke posted the following today on Facebook:

I have started a group with the express intent on putting a wrench in the works of your vote swap.

The idea of vote swapping is deplorable and morally unethical. Your high and mighty rant about wasted votes, as well meaning as it is, is still an attempt to circumvent Canada’s Elective process.

I will be filing a report with Facebook asking them to take down this group. In the mean time I am gathering people who will be joining your ranks and making false matches with no intent on honouring theirs swaps.

How is that as a corrective measure? Talk about really wasted votes.

Suffragium caveo (voter beware)!

Good luck sorting out those who want to really swap with the infiltrators.

My response to Glyn:

Glynn, Elections Canada has ruled that vote swapping is legal. Your attempt to circumvent a legal option for voting is what is discouraging. None of us *want* to vote swap. Take a look at any country that uses proportional voting, and you’ll see that crazy hacks like vote swap aren’t necessary.

It shouldn’t matter where I live to cast a vote for the party I want. Maybe parties should provide incentives for supporters to form communes in a set of ridings to make their votes count.

This isn’t just about fringe parties either. Conservative voters get screwed also. What about all the conservatives voting in the Toronto area, or in a riding where the Liberal incumbent has won handily for 16 years? There is no incentive for them to go out and vote, and that is the real shame. That should *never* happen.

Read the first comment that went up on pairvote.ca from a red Tory named AngryPC. I can’t say it better myself: http://www.votepair.ca/voter-stories

Naturally, I’ve been thinking about the impact of people being deliberate in screwing up the process. Really, it’s not that hard to do. In the end, the trust has to be there between two persons to make the swap happen.

Vote swapping is *far* from ideal, so whay are thousands are signing up? Simply put, they are doing it because they have *nothing to lose*, and perhaps they place more trust in an inspired unfamilar voter than in our political process. For many this is one small step in changing democracy for the better. The chance to actually make a difference is worth the risk to many.

I believe vote swapping will change the result in at least one riding. The odds are too good – it should be possible to redirect hundreds of authentic votes in a few ridings at a minimum, and that is often the difference between winning and losing.

So what measures can be taken to lessen sabotage? I am appealling to you, the readers and those of you who have registered. The system does have checks to tell if one person is trying to register multiple times, but it is not fool-proof. Here are some of my other ideas:

• Each pair of voters needs to talk with each other by phone, and produce whatever identification they have that would affirm them – Facebook profile, personal blog, scan of driver’s license (with license # blacked out). Talk to the person and get a better understanding of who they are.
• Do a Google search on the person’s name. See what you can find.
• Use a tool like the Facebook app Six Degrees of Separation to find out how you might be connected to this person. It requires you to add lots of your friends and so on to make it work. Linked In is another option.
• Take a photo of the vote you cast, while in the voting booth. Not sure if this is legal, I haven’t checked the Elections Canada web site. This would only help to confirm the vote cast afterwards. This might make a fun project on Flickr. Again, unsure of the legalities here.
• Some kind of escrow, where each person willingly deposits something of value with a trusted 3rd party, and only gets it back when they can prove they voted according to the agreement (thinking of the photo idea here).
• Anyone who does not feel they can trust their paired voter enough can request another partner. I’ll do my best to accommodate.

I will not be dismayed by those who disagree with what we have started, even when deliberate attempts are made to make our efforts fruitless. Nothing worth doing comes without a price.

Are you with me?

Almost always, the creative dedicated minority has made the world better.
- Martin Luther King, Jr.

It seems pair voting is now one of the hot stories at this point in the election. I’ve gotten over a dozen requests for interviews over the past week,

Pair vote tour, coming to a town near you:

• Sudbury. Interview with CBC Radio One Sudbury tomorrow (Friday Sept 19) at 7:15 am. I’ll be explaining how pair vote works and how someone in a northern Ontario riding might consider pair voting. Hopefully the kids racing around in the house won’t drown out my 5 minutes of fame.
• Montréal. Jean-Francois Ranger, pair voter in Montréal will speak with Radio Canada at 12 tomorrow. Not sure when it will air, but we’ll put a link to the video on their web site once its published. Go JF go!
• Toronto. Change a Click Away (NOW Toronto) My interview didn’t make to the edited version, probably because of its partisan nature, but vote swapping is mentioned.
• Edmonton. I’ll trade my Harper for your Layton. For anyone who doesn’t vote Conservative, there is little point in voting, unless

Where next? You can decide where the next story happens by contacting your local media. That’s all it takes. Most are looking for someone local to tell their story of why they are vote swapping, what the difference it makes.

You’ve inspired me with your stories, I encourage you to share them with those in your community. Real change happens from the bottom up. Let’s send Ottawa a message that the voting system status quo has to go.

Update: A News Ottawa did a story on pair voting (see video), including our very own Kris Joseph and an awful shot of myself near the end. That aside, they reported something I hadn’t heard before, that tricking someone into voting for a particular candidate is an offence under the Elections Act:

The verdict is in; Elections Canada has concluded that online vote-swapping schemes aren’t illegal. James Hale, a spokesman for the federal agency, said that the simple act of encouraging someone to vote in a particular way is all right under the Canada Elections Act. It’s also permissible to invite people to participate in an organized strategic voting plan, whether on the Internet or by other means.

Nevertheless, they warn voters to be careful if they decide to participate for a number of reasons. One is that they could potentially be misled by someone acting under multiple or false identities to trick them into voting for a particular candidate. If such an act were to occur, Hale says the person who misled them would, be guilty of an offence under the Elections Act.

Nice to see Elections Canada finally made a decision on vote swapping.. Now no one needs to worry about legal issues. EC is right in pointing out that there is some risk involved – there is no guarantee that the person you pair with will carry out the vote swap. But, when your vote in your own riding has no chance at all, that’s an easy risk to take.

Canada’s electoral watchdog has deemed online vote-swapping to be legal but warned that the scheme could be used to dupe voters into casting their ballot for certain parties.

Elections Canada began looking into the issue after a Facebook group surfaced last week urging people living in ridings likely to have tight races to swap votes as a way to keep Stephen Harper’s Conservatives from winning a majority.

James Hale, a spokesman for the federal agency, said the act of encouraging someone to vote in a particular way is allowed under the Elections Act.

It’s also acceptable for people to invite voters to participate in an organized strategic voting plan, whether on the internet or through other means, he said.

But, he said, “electors should be cautious for a couple of reasons.”

Voters could potentially be misled by someone acting under a false identity who tricks them into voting a particular way, which would be an offence under the Elections Act.

Since people cast ballots alone in a voting booth, it is also difficult to verify whether they actually voted as promised.

Also, the agency warned, it is illegal for money or “material benefit” to pass hands as part of a voting arrangement.

“It’s not an offence to tell your friend you think they should vote in a certain way, and it’s not an offence to say ‘Yeah, I think that’s a great idea.’ It is an offence to accept money or to offer money for that,” said Hale.

Read the rest of the article.

The pair vote idea is growing faster than I ever imagined. What started as a personal attempt to raise awareness about voting reform has grown into a movement of people dissatisfied with the status quo.

We’re at a kairos moment. The words “voting reform” and “proportional representation” are popping up everywhere online. People are talking about it on the streets, and the media has latched onto the story.

I’m so thrilled the Internet has connected us, so quickly and so easily. 21st century technology to overcome an outdated 12th century voting system.

Alas, I’m just one person, doing what I can, on top of my day job and looking after a young family, trying to live Ghandi’s call to “be the change you want to see”. It’s time to open up something started by one person for the whole community to embrace.

Here is my workload, and where you can help:

1. Community outreach. We have a hot story to tell, and we need to encourage people to get engaged beyond the pair voting itself. Some people are asking how to promote the idea locally, so we could post some ideas on that, perhaps working closely with Fair Vote and their election materials.
2. Marketing and promotion. Lots to do to engage bloggers, Facebook ppl, media, etc. People are linking to the site, some for, some against. Adding comments to articles discussing strategic voting is working. There is a Pair Vote Facebook page and a Twitter account for sending out updates. I’m also getting media requests daily for interviews, and I have you all to thank for it. Anyone have artistic ability? Some banners would be nice that people can embed on their sites. Heck, I’d like a logo for the Pair Vote site too! You don’t want me to attempt that.
3. Technical stuff. Lots of software pieces to this operation, and time needed to manage them, prepare and analyze data. WordPress, Feedblitz, Google Maps, Google Spreadsheets, some PHP hacking are the current tools of the trade.
4. Content. Need more engaging, visual content on voting reform and the pair process. Interested in posting stories that illustrate the problems with current electoral system as they surface in the media. Two have been posted on the blog, need lots more.
5. Vote pairing process. Need to finalize exactly how this is going to work. I’ve got a plan, but can use some feedback. Need to get data on strategic voting ridings. Also concerns about phony registrants to think about.
6. Extra goodies like posting stats about registrants. I was playing last night with a Google map of where people have registered from. Would be interesting to display stats on # supporters per party, and the other parties they are willing to vote for, especially for the strategic / swing ridings.

To get more involved, email pairvote@gmail.com and let me know what interests you. I’m more interested in a willingness to participate than in ability or experience. Heck, I’m learning lots on-the-job, and so can you.

Working at the home office

Yours for a strong democracy,
Gerry Kirk

Greens and Bloc in a dead heat for popular vote, but not in seats

democraticSPACE is reporting that the polls show the Conservatives are close to a majority government early on in the campaign.

Every time I read numbers like this, I want to scream, I mean our outdated voting system is a national disgrace. Compare numbers:

NDP @ 17.5% gets 8 fewer seats than the Bloc @ 8.6%
Greens get *no* seats while the Bloc gets *38*, yet they are in a dead heat for popular vote!

Makes me want to pull my hair out. We need to highlight these disparacies when publishing stats on seats, until we can’t take it any more.

Conservatives on verge of a majority – democraticSpace.com